Trog Blog #1: Seek Ye First the Scientific Method

The principles of the scientific method, as taken directly from Wikipedia: 

It involves careful observation, applying rigorous skepticism about what is observed, given that cognitive assumptions can distort how one interprets the observation. It involves formulating hypotheses, via induction, based on such observations; the testability of hypotheses, experimental and the measurement-based statistical testing of deductions drawn from the hypotheses; and refinement (or elimination) of the hypotheses based on the experimental findings.

In a really basic way this leads a researcher to settle on two hypotheses. 1) The null hypothesis (which states that there is no relationship between the variables of interest) and 2) the alternative hypothesis (which states there is a relationship).

And THE GOAL is to REJECT THE NULL hypothesis. It’s a weird semantics game, but it effectively says to everyone “via a process of exclusion, my best guess (alternative hypothesis) seems to make the most sense right now”.

If you’re behaving like a TROG, then you seek only to confirm your alternative hypothesis. I.e., you’re trying to prove yourself right rather than wrong. Students love to prove themselves right because they cannot handle the bottomless abyss of uncertainty. In fact, humans are mostly predisposed to confirming our own biases. It’s comfortable, it’s easy, and Hey! you happen to be right a lot, which feels grrrreat!

The analogy is: if you have a hammer in your hand, everything looks like a nail. Until you start to realize that hammering screws, thumbs, and glass doesn’t work very well. And then you learn to use different tools. Ideally, your medical providers are doing the same thing.

But sometimes they aren’t.

Because if you try to hammer a screw into a 2x4, it doesn’t work. But if you make a patient do silly exercises, they still tend to get better. Or if you give them an injection. Or a surgery. Patients, overall, tend to get better. I’ll restrain myself from a lengthy rant right now…

If you are a medical provider, you should be trying to RULE OUT everything else before settling on a diagnosis. Admittedly, this is a difficult mental exercise to do with every patient. Because bias confirmation is easy, it requires less energy. And we all like the path of least resistance, no matter what motivational video you just watched.

But remaining skeptical is a vital component to treating patients. It keeps you honest. It makes you think. And ultimately it keeps the patient in the center of all decision making, right where they should be.

If you are a patient, you should probably ensure your provider is RULING OUT everything else before treating you. Similarly, I would encourage every medical consumer to have a healthy dose of skepticism when offered medical advice.

Either way, remain skeptical…and don’t live in caves…

P.S., treating people is obviously infinitely more complicated than this. BUT, you know, reductionist entertainment and stuff…

Picture source